Friday, August 21, 2009

Lesnar vs Carwin

http://mmajunkie.com/news/15921/brock-lesnar-and-shane-carwin-in-discussions-to-meet-at-ufc-106-in-las-vegas.mma

As broken by MMAJunkie (My personal choice of MMA news broker be it through their site or twitter) a likely bout between Heavyweight Juggernauts Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin is slated for UFC 106 in Vegas.

As Brock has amassed his 4-1 record using his size and athleticism to negate the large experience gaps he has faced against his opponents so far, Carwin poses a "fair fight" in terms of physical gifts. Carwin is the only fighter in the UFC with bigger hands than Lesnar, both of which needed custom gloves made for them, making this fight a tough test for Lesnar.

Lesnar, while belittled by hardcore fans for his lack of experience and marketing shove up the title ladder showed a savy gameplan and patience in his dominant performance against Frank Mir last July.

Carwin's last bout was a step up in competition against Gabe Gonzaga who not only tested Carwin's chin but also his skills off of his back, both of which he passed and delivered another devastating KO, bringing his record to 11-0.

While Brock's 4-1 record pales to Carwins 11-0, it can be argued that Brock has faced tougher competition with his last 3 victories being over vet Heath Herring, legend Randy Couture and avenging his one loss against Frank Mir who was coming off a destructive win over Antonio Noguiera. Carwin's hit list, while not as elite, consists of solid fighters, all of whom never made it out of the first round.

When breaking down this fight, only experience seems to set the two apart. Both are enormous and athletic wrestlers with devastating KO power and both come from strong camps with coaches that will come up with a perfect gameplan, which will likely be the same for each fighter. There are small advantages in each area however as Brock is the more decorated college wrestler while Shane has showed more polished boxing.

The likely plan for both is as follows; A) Put him on his back B) Stand and knock him out. I for one hope plan A is quickly abandoned. Brock has yet to be tested on his feat and I feel has shown some weakness there. Randy had early success on the feet and the few offensive moments by Mir in their last fight had Brock covered up and moving straight back until a flying knee attempt ended with Frank on his back again.

Now that Greg Jackson has Carwin training full time for the first time in his career, he'll likely have him aggressive in the standup as that will help set up the takedown. Straight wrestling will favor Brock but throwing hands and having him cover up will present the opportunity for Shane to change levels and score the takedown and finally test Lesnar on his back. If Shane can connect and test his chin or get top position, we could easily have a new Heavyweight Champion.

Lesnar will likely look to stand initially but should be able to take the fight to the ground whenever he'd like. In the past we've seen that it doesn't take much more than a playground-like shove for Brock to put someone on their back. If Brock gets on top, expect a more aggressive attack than he showed against Mir as he won't be worrying about submission defense as much.

This fight boils down to either who connects first or who gets on top first. If they stand for any amount of time I don't expect this fight to leave the first round. Should they decide to wrestle, we may see the fight hit the second or third. Either way, both fighters are powerful and aggressive making this Clash of the Titans a great fight to look forward too.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

UFC 98 Picks and Comments

Lyoto Machida-Dec-5
Matt Hughes-Dec-3
Xavier Foupa-Pokam-Ko-2
Dan Miller-Sub-3
Sean Sherk-Dec-3
Brock Larson-Dec-3
Pat Barry-Ko-1
Phillipe Nover-Ko-1
Krzysztof Soszynski-Dec-3
Yoshiyuki Yoshida-Ko-2
David Kaplan-Ko-3

My thoughts on why I am more confident in Hughes winning than Lyoto as a lot of people Serra is very capable of pulling off the upset while saying Lyoto is favored to win. I just feel the opposite way although I agree Hughes and Lyoto should both win.

Hughes and Serra are both coming off injuries, Hughes more recently and both haven't fought in alittle over a year.

Looking at their past opponents, Serra's big wins besides GSP are Jeff Curan and Chris Lytle. The Lytle fight was not the greatest fight ever. Now I don't believe in lucky punches. Serras KO was great, he has heavy hands no doubt. However, I think GSP showed 9 out of 10 times he will dominate that fight and I think most agree as no one is clamoring for the rubbermatch.

Also, between Serras '05 loss to Karo and his 11/06 win over Lytle, he had no pro fights although he did fight on TUF. In that time, Hughes;

Loss Georges St. Pierre
Win B.J. Penn
Win Royce Gracie
Win Joe Riggs

all tough fights (ok Royce wasnt too tough) and alot of experience gained.

I fully understand the fight is here and now but looking at their history I really don't see how Serra on his best day will beat Hughes on his worst day. And I am definitely a Serra fan and not really a fan of Hughes. Serra's only 4 MMA subs are against nobodies. 3 of them were in his first 3 fights against guys that never fought again, 0-1. I think Hughes is a better MMA Submission fighter. No Gi BJJ match I take Serra all day against anybody but he has never shown great submission finishing power against anyone even C level. Hughes has gotten out of tough spots with better mma submission fighters. His second fight with BJ he was in the worst spot you could be in against BJ and toughed it out.

Also, Hughes has shown a desire to improve by going to train with Sean Sherk. This shows me he has humbled himself and is smart enough to know that he needed to switch things up to continue to compete. Serra, although training with the miller brothers and frankie edgar as shown in his blog, seems to be doing the same things. Hughes at least had the excuse that his past routine made him the greates WW champ in history (until GSP racks up his inevitable win streak) where Serra's didn't do much for his career. That is why I think Hughes is a top lock for a Decision win.

Now for Lyoto vs Rashad. This case is simply to give my perspective on why I am low locking this one based on the fact that Rashad absolutely has the ability to finish Lyoto, although I'm confident Lyoto will win a decision.

Lyoto in the fights I've seen (please point me in the direction of information I may have not seen) hasn't really shown what kind of chin he has. i'm not saying it's weak but more that it is an unknown variable. I can't confidently say that if (and I know its a big if) Rashad connects with a right hand or head kick that Lyoto can shrug it off.

Also, i cannot confidently say that Lyoto will be able to stop every one of Rashads takedowns. The closest information I have to compare is the Tito fight. Tito spent much of that fight trying to chase Lyoto down. I believe Rashads gameplan is to shoot all day as putting Lyoto on his back is his best bet to deal with his elusive foot work. With Rashads ability to set up the takedown with strikes and his explosiveness, he has a good chance to do that. I also feel that Rashad has finished better opponents than Lyoto has taken to decision. Tito being their common and Lyoto performing better against him than Rashad I feel is hard to compare as they were two very different fights with very different gameplans from each fighter.

Monday, April 20, 2009

The End of an Era

Chuck Lidell first stepped into the Octagon on May 15th 1998 at UFC 17. He fought between the UFC and other organizations, with his first finish actually coming by way of a rear naked choke. After his win against Jeff Monson at UFC 29 Chuck never fought outside the UFC, aside from representing the organization in the Pride FC tournament. 21 wins with 13 KOs later, Chuck Lidell grudgingly resigned to the fact that his run in MMA was over following his loss to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua at UFC 97. Ironically, his first and last UFC events were both titled "Redemption", bookends for an 11 year career that certainly did not need to be redeemed.

The Iceman was at his prime at a time when the UFC needed a public figure to herald the sport into the mainstream. With his rockstar appearance and lifestyle to quiet confidence, Chuck became a superstar as people tuned in to watch the Iceman take out his next victim. After losing to Quinton Jackson in Pride, Lidell went on a 7 fight streak that lasted two years, knocking out every single opponent that entered the cage with him. Fans everywhere couldn't help but pity his next opponents as second on the round timer seemed to countdown towards an inevitable conclusion, that left hook or right hand would find its mark and send the recipient crashing to the canvas.

Then in May '07, the highly anticipated rematch against Quinton "Rampage" Jackson came to a halt barely 2 minutes into the first round, courtesy of a Rampage counter punch to a low left hook by Chuck. His comback fight against Keith Jardine also did not go as planned, as Chuck lost a split decision. Then at UFC 79, a fight of the year candidate battle against long time rival Wanderlei Silva put Chuck back in spotlight. The three round war saw Chuck win a decision, dominating the action from start to finish with little lulls in action as the two swung for the fences for 15 minutes. It seemed like Chuck was on his way back to the top as he faced off against the younger Rashad Evans. The first round saw Chuck impose his will and land aggressive shots but the second round did not go the same. Pursuing his opponent against the cage, the younger and quicker Rashad landed a devastating right hook that put the Iceman out cold, putting the arena and viewers at home in stunned silence. Chuck eventually left the cage under his own power but the retirement talk had already started to buzz. The fight at UFC 97 against Shogun became a make or break effort to stay in the game. Unfortunately, powerful leg kicks and a left hand ended the bout decisively, and Chuck went down again.

At nearly 40 years of age, there is no shame in retirement from a sport, especially a sport that you not only built up into a mainstream obsession, but dominated for two years. Chuck "The Iceman" Lidell sat atop Mixed Martial Arts as a living legend, selling out arenas and selling shows on the power in his hands and fight anyone, anywhere and anytime attitude. A true fighter and warrior who lived for the competition, Chuck Lidell will always be a legend in the sport.

Friday, April 17, 2009

UFC 97 Picks

Anderson Silva-KO-2
Chuck Liddell-KO-3
Cheick Kongo-KO-2
Luiz Cane-KO-1
Krzysztof Soszynski-Sub-3
Jason MacDonald-Sub-3
Denis Kang-Dec-3
David Loiseau-Dec-3
Ryo Chonan-Dec-3
Mark Bocek-Dec-3
Sam Stout-Dec-3
Vinny Magalhaes-Sub-2

Here are my picks for tomorrows card which should be really exciting. Cane/Cantwell and Soszynski/Stann (alliteration much?) have the chance to be absolute slug fests. Cane is powerful and aggressive and should be able to handle Cantwell fairly easily. Soszynski has a great advantage on the ground and can have a submission at any point. The question is will he test things out on the feet first and for how long? After some stand up I believe he'll take it to the ground and secure a submission.

There are several very close matchups this card with Herman/Loiseau, Stout/Wiman and MacDonald/Quarry. All three of these will be very close and can go either way. I think the clearer of the three is Macdonald vs Quarry. Macdonald has fought much better competition although losing to higher level fighters while Quarry, aside from losses to Maia and Franklin, has beaten mid level fighters. Looking at their shared opponents in Maia and Franklin, MacDonald fared much better than Quarry, showing great ground skills and defense against Maia, and while getting dominated by a strong fighter in Franklin, showed he could close the distance. I think that is the most telling fight as Quarry is not as strong as Franklin and will not be able to consistently stop MacDonalds takedown attempts. As Quarry was submitted much quicker by Maia than MacDonald, look for a late sub by the Canadian.

...one more note, if you think Kang is being fed an easy comeback opponent in the little known "Professor X" think again. An upset here in a KO by Xavier would not surprise me at all.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

UFC Condit vs Kampmann

Carlos Condit Vs. Martin Kampmann
Martin Kampmann-Dec-3

Ryan Bader Vs. Carmelo Marrero
Ryan Bader-Dec-3

Tyson Griffin Vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Tyson Griffin-Dec-3

Junie Browning Vs. Cole Miller
Junie Browning-Dec-3

Gleison Tibau Vs. Jeremy Stephens
Gleison Tibau-Sub-2

Ricardo Almeida Vs. Matt Horwich
Ricardo Almeida-Dec-3

Brock Larson Vs. Jesse Sanders
Brock Larson-Sub-1

Tim Credeur Vs. Nick Catone
Tim Credeur-Sub-2

Jorge Rivera Vs. Nissen Osterneck
Jorge Rivera-KO-2

Rob Kimmons Vs. Joe Vedepo
Rob Kimmons-Sub-1

Tim McKenzie Vs. Aaron Simpson
Tim McKenzie-TKO-2

Steve Steinbeiss Vs. Ryan Jensen
Steve Steinbeiss-Dec-3


Kampmann vs Condit
A great free main event fight, Condit vs Kampmann is going to be exciting. The two aggressive strikers have a tough test against each other. Condit has hype and the weight of his WEC belt on him as he makes his much anticipated UFC debut while great things are expected of Kampmann one division south of where he started his UFC career.

Condit has showed technical Muay Thai skills and a dangerous submission game off of his back, both courtesy of his lanky frame. He'll enjoy a 4 inch reach advantage in this fight which he'll use very well and combined with good angles and footwork will make Kampmann work to get inside. That being said, when Kampmann gets inside, look for him to strike, dirty box and clinch and use his size advantage to wear Condit down. Also, Kampmann has good takedowns and a good top game he can use if things get frustrating on his feet, and despite Condits move to the wrestling heavy Arizona Combat Sports, his takedown defense is his weakest area. Condit though has shown a great guard with quick armbars and triangles that keeps him dangerous when taken down.

Look for Kampmanns size and power to control Condit and take away the Unanimous Decision.

Other notable fights come courtesy of last seasons TUF contestants as Ryan Bader takes on Carmello Marrero and Junie Browning takes a step up in competition against ATTs Cole Miller.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

MMA Junkie Sunday Junkie 3/22/09 Entry

HUGHES AND LIDDELL ON VERGE OF RETIREMENT?

When fighters should retire is becoming a hot topic lately as some MMA legends have lost their dominance in the twilight of their careers. For some fighters such as Ken Shamrock, the choice seems obvious. Others, such as Matt Hughes or Chuck Liddell, the choice isn't as black and white. Both fighters, however, have upcoming bouts that should help determine what they've got left. Liddell's opponent, "Shogun" Rua, has looked very beatable even in his victory over Mark Coleman. Liddell has never had cardio issues, and if Rua shows up like he did in his past two fights, Liddell should have no problem getting a win. Hughes has a tough (but winnable) fight with Matt Serra. Having fought more than Serra recently and having good submission defense, Hughes should be able to pull off the decision win with his wrestling. However, retirement would seem inevitable if either loses. The question is if they win, will they choose to leave the sport on a high note, or will the thrill of victory keep them hooked and following the way of Shamrock?

"Ralph"
Wallingford, Conn.

Monday, March 16, 2009

Why You Shouldn't Only Be Watching the UFC

The WEC
Headed by Miguel Torres, Uriah Faber, Mike Brown and a new 125 lb division, the little guys are making noise and showing why smaller and faster make for exciting fights. Miguel Torres is a pound for pound king who puts on fights that would put Anderson Silva on the edge of his seat. Unfolding drama north at 145lbs between new champ Mike Brown and the returning Uriah Faber adds to the excitement and with a deep list of legitimate contenders there are some great match ups on the way. Did I mention WEC cards are free?

DREAM
Aoki, Alvarez, Hansen, Kawajiri and JZ make up half of most of the 155lb Top Ten Lists and they're all in the same place. Add that mix to the tournament format still alive and well overseas and enjoy.

Strikeforce
The biggest North American contender to the throne held by the UFC. With the demise (thank God) of EliteXC, Scott Coker and Co. have grabbed some great fighters to add to their stable as well as a tv deal with CBS. Coker has shown he knows what he is doing and has steadily grown his brand for long term success. His fighters speak very well of how they're treated and even Dana White has nothing bad to say. While no division is exceptionally deep, they have solid fighters across the board and are more willing to play nice with other promotions to put on the fights that fans want. Expect BIG things from Coker and Strikeforce this year.