UFC 98 Picks and Comments

Lyoto Machida-Dec-5
Matt Hughes-Dec-3
Xavier Foupa-Pokam-Ko-2
Dan Miller-Sub-3
Sean Sherk-Dec-3
Brock Larson-Dec-3
Pat Barry-Ko-1
Phillipe Nover-Ko-1
Krzysztof Soszynski-Dec-3
Yoshiyuki Yoshida-Ko-2
David Kaplan-Ko-3

My thoughts on why I am more confident in Hughes winning than Lyoto as a lot of people Serra is very capable of pulling off the upset while saying Lyoto is favored to win. I just feel the opposite way although I agree Hughes and Lyoto should both win.

Hughes and Serra are both coming off injuries, Hughes more recently and both haven't fought in alittle over a year.

Looking at their past opponents, Serra's big wins besides GSP are Jeff Curan and Chris Lytle. The Lytle fight was not the greatest fight ever. Now I don't believe in lucky punches. Serras KO was great, he has heavy hands no doubt. However, I think GSP showed 9 out of 10 times he will dominate that fight and I think most agree as no one is clamoring for the rubbermatch.

Also, between Serras '05 loss to Karo and his 11/06 win over Lytle, he had no pro fights although he did fight on TUF. In that time, Hughes;

Loss Georges St. Pierre
Win B.J. Penn
Win Royce Gracie
Win Joe Riggs

all tough fights (ok Royce wasnt too tough) and alot of experience gained.

I fully understand the fight is here and now but looking at their history I really don't see how Serra on his best day will beat Hughes on his worst day. And I am definitely a Serra fan and not really a fan of Hughes. Serra's only 4 MMA subs are against nobodies. 3 of them were in his first 3 fights against guys that never fought again, 0-1. I think Hughes is a better MMA Submission fighter. No Gi BJJ match I take Serra all day against anybody but he has never shown great submission finishing power against anyone even C level. Hughes has gotten out of tough spots with better mma submission fighters. His second fight with BJ he was in the worst spot you could be in against BJ and toughed it out.

Also, Hughes has shown a desire to improve by going to train with Sean Sherk. This shows me he has humbled himself and is smart enough to know that he needed to switch things up to continue to compete. Serra, although training with the miller brothers and frankie edgar as shown in his blog, seems to be doing the same things. Hughes at least had the excuse that his past routine made him the greates WW champ in history (until GSP racks up his inevitable win streak) where Serra's didn't do much for his career. That is why I think Hughes is a top lock for a Decision win.

Now for Lyoto vs Rashad. This case is simply to give my perspective on why I am low locking this one based on the fact that Rashad absolutely has the ability to finish Lyoto, although I'm confident Lyoto will win a decision.

Lyoto in the fights I've seen (please point me in the direction of information I may have not seen) hasn't really shown what kind of chin he has. i'm not saying it's weak but more that it is an unknown variable. I can't confidently say that if (and I know its a big if) Rashad connects with a right hand or head kick that Lyoto can shrug it off.

Also, i cannot confidently say that Lyoto will be able to stop every one of Rashads takedowns. The closest information I have to compare is the Tito fight. Tito spent much of that fight trying to chase Lyoto down. I believe Rashads gameplan is to shoot all day as putting Lyoto on his back is his best bet to deal with his elusive foot work. With Rashads ability to set up the takedown with strikes and his explosiveness, he has a good chance to do that. I also feel that Rashad has finished better opponents than Lyoto has taken to decision. Tito being their common and Lyoto performing better against him than Rashad I feel is hard to compare as they were two very different fights with very different gameplans from each fighter.